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UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme ----------- Global Warming: Asia Vulnerable Bangkok, 20 February 2001 - More flooding, droughts and forest fires, decreases in agricultural and aquacultural productivity, displacement of tens of millions of coastal dwellers by sea level rise and intense tropical cyclones, and the degradation of mangroves and coral reef ecosystems are some of the likely consequences of climate change in Asia. The projections are contained in the second volume of a major climate change report produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and released yesterday in Geneva. 140 government delegates from more than 100 countries accepted the new IPCC report "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability" and approved its Summary for Policymakers (downloadable from www.ipcc.ch). The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which established the IPCC along with the World Meteorological Organisation, said the report - produced by more than 400 scientific experts - provided further evidence of the scale and seriousness of the global warming problem and need to act quickly and decisively "We must re-start the stalled climate change negotiations as a first step towards the deep cuts in emissions from factories, power stations, cars and homes, needed to curb damaging climate change," said Klaus Toepfer, Executive Director of UNEP. "And we also need to help vulnerable people to adapt to the impacts and that action needs to be taken now." For the Asia region, the Summary for Policymakers states that: * Extreme events have increased in temperate and tropical Asia, including floods, droughts, forest fires and tropical cyclones. * Decreases in agricultural productivity and aquaculture due to thermal and water stress, sea-level rise, floods and droughts, and tropical cyclones would diminish food security in many countries of arid, tropical, and temperate Asia; agriculture would expand and increase in productivity in northern areas. * Runoff and water availability may decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia but increase in northern Asia. * Human health would be threatened by possible increased exposure to vector-borne infectious diseases and heat stress in parts of Asia. * Sea-level rise and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones would displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas of temperate and tropical Asia; increased intensity of rainfall would increase flood risks in temperate and tropical Asia. * Climate change would increase energy demand, decrease tourist attraction, and influence transportation in some regions of Asia. * Climate change would exacerbate threats to biodiversity due to land-use and land-cover change and population pressure in Asia. Sea-level rise would put ecological security at risk, including mangroves and coral reefs. * Poleward movement of the southern boundary of the permafrost zones of Asia would result in a change of thermokarst and thermal erosion with negative impacts on social infrastructure and industries. * Adaptive capacity of human systems is low and vulnerability is high in the developing countries of Asia; the developed countries of Asia are more able to adapt and less vulnerable. Last year, prior to the failed climate change convention meeting at The Hague in November, UNEP and the Asian Development Bank facilitated a series of national workshops throughout Asia to build understanding of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM is of special interest to developing countries, as it could provide for investments in projects for sustainable development, including clean energy projects. However, several important aspects of the mechanism are yet to be negotiated. Mr Toepfer urged all sectors of society including governments, aid agencies, non governmental agencies and the United Nations family of agencies to urgently work together to help vulnerable people and countries prepare for the impacts of climate change. "There are no winners, only losers, in the climate change scenario. Now is time to act collectively and decisively," he said. The first volume of the IPCC's report, released last month in Shanghai, confirmed the increasingly strong evidence for humanity's influence on the global climate. It also projected that the globally-averaged temperate of the air above the Earth's surface would rise by 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years. The third working group report, assessing options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change will be finalised in Accra, Ghana from February 28 to March 3. For more information: Interviews with experts who have contributed to the report can be arranged through -UNEP press officer Tim Higham, Bangkok, +662 288 2127, higham. unescap@un.org Additional background information - ww.unep.ch/conventions/info/infoindex.htm and www.wmo.ch Official documents about the climate convention - www.unfccc.int UNEP Press Release ROAP/01/01 ----------------- From UNEP/WMO february 19: For use of the media only; not an official document.: PRESS RELEASE Global warming report details impacts on people and nature Bonn/Geneva/Nairobi, 19 February 2001 ? The second volume of a major climate change report describing in greater detail than ever before how global warming could impact civilization and the natural environment has been finalized here by an international group of leading scientists. Last month's report by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed the increasingly strong evidence for humanity's influence on the global climate. It also projected that the globally-averaged temperature of the air above the Earth's surface would rise by 1.4 ? 5.8 ----- 's report by Working Group II analyses how this general warming will affect Africa, Asia, Europe and other regions over the coming decades. While highlighting remaining uncertainties, it details expected changes in weather patterns, water resources, the cycling of the seasons, ecosystems, extreme climate events, and much more. The report is an objective assessment of the most up-to-date, peer-reviewed scientific research available. "Climate change is a stress that will be superimposed over expected population and other environmental stresses," said Professor. G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which, together with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), launched the IPCC in 1988. "Life as we know it today on the planet will be forced to respond to the shift to a warmer world. We have to use mitigation and adaptation strategies to face the changes while not forgetting to improve our knowledge basis. Every natural and socio-economic system appears to be vulnerable to climate change. However, it is the least developed countries that are the most vulnerable." Klaus Toepfer, Executive Director of UNEP, said "The scientists have shown us a compelling snapshot of what the Earth ? which already faces so many other social and environmental pressures ? will probably look like later in the 21st century." "In addition to minimizing global warming through cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we need to understand the powerful changes our industrial economy has set into motion and anticipate them. We must start helping vulnerable species and ecosystems adapt to new climate conditions. Governments should already factor these new conditions into their long-term investment and planning decisions," he said. The report concludes that our future ability to satisfy human needs will be affected ? both positively and negatively ? by changes in agricultural conditions; by local and regional trends in droughts, floods, and storms; by unforeseen stresses on buildings and other long-standing infrastructure; by altered disease and health risks; and much more. "The new IPCC report has powerful implications for how we deal with poverty and sustainable development over the coming decades," said Michael Zammit Cutajar, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. "No country can afford to ignore the coming transformation of its natural and human environment. The poor and the vulnerable are at greatest risk. This report is a timely reminder that we need to pay more attention to the costs of inaction, and that the costs of action to cut emissions are just part of the climate change equation." he said. Many of the physical changes that scientists have assessed as being consistent with global warming can already be witnessed today. The extent of Arctic sea-ice has shrunk by about 10-15%, while Antarctic sea ice retreated south by 2.8 degrees of latitude from the mid 1950s to the early 1970s. Alaska's boreal forests are expanding northwards at a rate of about 100 kilometres per 1. ---------- C rise. Ice cover on lakes and rivers in the mid-to-high Northern latitudes now lasts for about two weeks less than it did 150 years ago. In the European Alps, some plant species have been migrating upwards by one to four metres each decade. Across Europe, the growing season in controlled mixed-species gardens lengthened by 10.8 days from 1959 to 1993. In Europe and North America, migratory birds now arrive earlier in the spring and depart later in the autumn. Butterflies, beetles, dragonflies, and other insects are now found further north, where it was previously too cold for them to survive. In large parts of Eastern Europe, European Russia, central Canada and California, peak stream flows have shifted from spring to winter, as more precipitation falls as rain rather than as snow. In Asia, 67% of the glaciers in the Himalayan and Tianshan mountain ranges (which feed some major rivers) have retreated during the past decade. These trends are expected to continue through the 21st century and beyond. In parts of Africa, desertification is expected to worsen in response to reduced rainfall, runoff and soil moisture. In many Asian countries, declines in agricultural productivity will diminish food security, while sea-level rise and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones could displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas. In Australia and New Zealand, water is likely to become a key issue due to projected drying trends over much of the region. The risk of flooding will increase across much of Europe. In Latin America, floods and droughts will become more frequent and vector-borne infectious diseases will expand poleward. In North America, sea-level rise is expected to enhance coastal erosion and flooding and the risk of storm surges, particularly in Florida and along much of the US Atlantic coast. Small island states are likely to be among the countries most seriously affected by climate change. In all regions, developing countries will have difficulties adapting to climate change. Note to journalists: For more information, please contact UNEP Spokesman Tore Brevik at +254-2-623292 or tore.brevik@unep.org , WMO Spokesman Taysir Al-Ghanem at +41-22-730-8315 or Al-ghanem_t@gateway.wmo.ch , or UNFCCC press officer Michel Smitall at +49-228-8151005 or msmitall@unfccc.int . See also www.grida.no for a series of useful and downloadable graphs, www.unfccc.int for official documents about the climate talks, and www.wmo.ch and for additional background information ------------------ UNEP Press Release Explorers in Antarctica Find Fresh Evidence of Global Warming Nairobi, February 8 2001 - The important links between science, public awareness and political action were made clear today as government ministers at the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya, spoke with yachtsman and adventurer Sir Peter Blake in Antarctica. At anchor among icebergs and sheltering from gale-force katabatic winds, Sir Peter reported anecdotal evidence of much reduced sea ice cover in the Antarctic Peninsula at latitude 69 degrees 15 mins South. "We are in an area that normally is solid ice at this time of year. Now it has many bergs in it, but is essentially a free waterway, an almost unheard of occurrence," Sir Peter said by satellite phone. "The captain of a cruise ship that has been coming to the Antarctic Peninsula every year since the mid-1970s told us he has never seen the area so free of ice, and that the average temperature in that time has increased by about 1.4 degrees Celsius." UNEP Executive Director Klaus Toepfer told the adventurer that the most recent assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) showed that global warming over the next century is likely to be between 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius. He said that recent IPCC reports had confirmed a spectacular retreat and collapse of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula, which is related to a southerly migration of the January zero degrees Celsius isotherm. Projected warming is likely to break up ice shelves further south on the Antarctic Peninsula, exposing more bare ground and triggering biological changes in the terrestrial and marine environments. Mr Toepfer also told Sir Peter and the crew of his expedition yacht Seamaster that analysis of whaling records and modeling studies indicate that Antarctic sea ice retreated south by 2.8 degrees of latitude between the mid 1950s and early 1970s, as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from industrial emissions rose. "Climate change in polar regions is expected to be among the greatest of any region on the Earth and will cause major physical, ecological, sociological and economic impacts," Mr Toepfer said. David Anderson, President of the 21st session of UNEP's Governing Council taking place in Nairobi, Kenya, and Canada's environment Minister, echoed Mr Toepfer's remarks. "As a circumpolar country, we in Canada are acutely aware of the impact of climate change. In Canada's north, we are seeing dramatic changes that effect permafrost and sea ice, the latter of which has major implications for species on which the traditional Inuit life depends, such as polar bears and seals. This, in turn, has an impact on the traditional lifestyles of our Northern peoples. For Canada, this underscores the urgent need to take action on climate change. We are taking action domestically, but we need awareness and movement on the international front as well." Sir Peter said they had sailed through areas that would not have been navigable in the era of early explorers like Sir Ernest Shackleton, whose leadership of difficult geographical and scientific expeditions provides Sir Peter with inspiration. "Today we went to see what has happened to the King George VI ice shelf that normally fills the channel between Alexander Island and the mainland at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula. Indications are that it has receded dramatically, especially over the past 8 to 10 years. We weren't able to make it to the face of the ice shelf, because it is dropping so much old ice into the sea as it recedes. The channel is full of it," Sir Peter said. Sir Peter has won the Whitbread Round the World yacht race, held the record time for circumnavigating the world non-stop under sail (in the 1994 Trophee Jules Verne race), and headed the Team New Zealand syndicate, which won - then successfully defended - the Americas Cup, the premier trophy in world yachting. He now heads "blakexpeditions" and, in the 36-metre polar sea exploration yacht Seamaster, is embarked on a five-year schedule of expeditions to areas of the world that are key to the Earth's ecosystem. His aim is to build public awareness of the threats facing the environment, particularly water, because of human activity. "Earth is a water planet on which the quality of water defines quality of life," Sir Peter explains. "Good water, good life. Poor water, poor life. No water, no life." "Our objective is to help protect the waters of the world and, so, life in, on and around those waters." UNEP partnered with "blakexpeditions" before the Seamaster set sail from New Zealand last November, providing advice and its authoritative Global Environment Outlook reports as a basis for expedition planning and educational activity. Mr Toepfer said: "I am delighted that we have been able to play a role in such an innovative public awareness initiative. UNEP has many responsibilities but providing thorough scientific assessments, and transferring this knowledge the public and to the policy makers is one of its most important. " Joining Mr Toepfer in the conference call, held during the 21st session of UNEP's Governing Council, were the New Zealand environment minister Marian Hobbs, and Dutch Environment Minster Jan Pronk, who chaired the last climate change convention meeting - COP-6 - in November in The Hague. The Conference of Parties is due to resume later this year, having failed to reach agreement at The Hague on how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the agenda during UNEP's 21st governing council meeting are a range of pressing issues ranging from how to protect vulnerable populations against the impact of climate related natural disasters, the need to strengthen environmental laws in emerging economies, to the impact of globalisation on native, indigenous, cultures. UNEP's work programme and its need for better financing to help it meet the environmental challenges of the new millennium are also taking centre stage. From her current location Seamaster will spend further time exploring before heading back to South America in April to prepare for an expedition tracing the Amazon River from the Atlantic Ocean to its source in the Andes Mountains. Further information and daily logs can be obtained from the "blakexpeditions"web site at www.blakexpeditions.com. The IPCC is due to finalise the second volume of it Third Assessment Report, detailing the impacts of climate change on the regions of the world, at a meeting in Geneva from February 13-19. The "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" report's Summary for Policy Makers will be posted on the internet at www.ipcc.ch at 10am GMT on February 19. UNEP and the World Meteorological Organisation established the IPCC in 1988. Its role is to provide objective scientific and technical assessments that can help policy makers and political leaders take informed decisions about climate change. For more information contact: UNEP: Tore J. Brevik, UNEP Spokesman and Director of Communications and Public Information, on Tel: 254 2 623292, tore.brevik@unep.org , Robert Bisset on Tel: 254 2 623084 or Mobile, 072 520231 Robert.Bisset@unep.org ; or Tim Higham, UNEP's Asia-Pacific Information Officer, on Tel +662 2882127, higham.unescap@un.org . Blakexpeditions: Alan Sefton on Tel +64-9-5289735, alansefton@xtra.co.nz Please mention UNEP in any articles published. Cuttings should be faxed to UNEP at 254 2 623692 or cpinfo@unep.org Documentation and press information about the 21st session of the Governing Council can be seen on UNEP's web site at: www.unep.org/GC_21st/ UNEP News Release 01/19
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